By Brian Boyko
Well, 1996 is almost over and we’re really excited about the technologies of the upcoming year. At the risk of becoming Cassandra, I thought it might be fun to predict what 1997 holds for technology – don’t hold me to it, though!
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1) A greater number of Americans might see the utility in doing business, such as stock trading or shopping for presents via the World Wide Web, due to the introduction of the v.90 modems this year – man, is that fast!
2) Microsoft’s new operating system for home-users, codenamed Memphis, will come out next year and will likely require a whopping 32 MB of RAM, (c’mon, you know it’ll say “16” on the box) but it will be based on the Windows NT kernel. Microsoft will likely not use “Windows 97” but will more likely revert back to the old, simpler system, and the new version will likely be called Windows 5.0.
3) I really think 1997 is the year that the Laserdisc will take off – you really haven’t seen Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls until you’ve seen it in LD. (Speaking of movies, James Cameron’s Titanic is looking to be a huge flop. All the potential problems of Waterworld plus, it’s a story that you already know the ending to. Dude, the ship hits an iceberg, and everyone drowns. Sorry if I spoiled it for you.)
4) Steve Jobs’ return to Apple will likely see the company’s final demise – they missed the bandwagon, and I honestly believe he was brought in to liquidate the company’s assets. He’ll focus on NeXT and Pixar. As evidence, I present this quote from Wired Magazine from this past February: “The desktop computer industry is dead. Innovation has virtually ceased. Microsoft dominates with very little innovation. That’s over. Apple lost.”
5) Garry Kasparov will likely have a rematch with Deep Blue; and this time, I think the Grandmaster will win more easily than he did in his first match; simply put, human beings learn from their opponents, computers don’t.
6) In gaming, the Duke Nukem vs. Quake battle will heat up as 3d Realms releases Duke Nukem Forever.
7) You’re going to see more of a comeback for AltaVista in the search engine wars as they tweak their searching algorithm vs. Yahoo, but the market has already seen its first steps toward oligarchy. With Inktomi, Excite, Lycos, AskJeeves, and HotBot, filling out the pack, the market for search engines is so oversaturated, it’s not likely that a new player could find enough traction or breathing room to succeed. 
Netscape and Microsoft are bitter rivals right now, but the browser I’m betting on to make a run for market adoption? Opera. It’s good enough to start making a serious run as a dark-horse candidate, and while the two giants are dueling with each other, they may overlook this feisty young new entry to the market.
That’s it! In the meantime, I wish you and yours the best in the next year, whatever it may bring.
Brian Boyko is the Editor of Network Performance Daily and New Media Communication Specialist at NetQoS, and pines for his old 486 DX 66.
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